In early September, the Drewry World Container Index held at around USD 4,476 per 40ft container. The index looks calm, but the two main east-west corridors are moving in opposite directions. For exporters, the real question is no longer “Where is the freight rate going?” but “Which route should my cargo take?” In international freight forwarding trends, route selection, surcharges, schedules and document compliance are replacing a single freight-rate view.
1. US Routes Strengthen, Europe Routes Weaken
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US routes are supported by frontloading ahead of tariff expectations: Shanghai–Los Angeles rose about 2% to USD 7,352/FEU, while Shanghai–New York rose about 1% to USD 9,726/FEU.
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Europe routes are weakening: Shanghai–Rotterdam fell 2% to USD 3,997/FEU, and Shanghai–Genoa fell 3% to USD 4,216/FEU.
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Capacity is being reallocated: The cautious return of Suez Canal transits coincides with the end of the European peak season, returning capacity to Asia–Europe routes. These are two routes with two completely different problems.
2. Panama Is the “Slow-Burning” Problem
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Due to drought in the watershed, daily transits have already been cut from 36 to 34 vessels, and from September 15 they will fall further to 32.
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Maximum draft for Neopanamax vessels has been reduced to 48 feet, and on October 1 it will drop again to 47.5 feet.
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Carriers have introduced Panama Canal surcharges of about USD 130–500 per TEU, and the canal authority has not ruled out further quota cuts.
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Cargo moving to the US East Coast and US Gulf should plan for schedule delays into 2027.
3. The Red Sea Return Is Real, but Reversible
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Suez Canal transit volumes rose sharply year on year in August, and the average vessel size on the route has increased from about 3,800 TEU to 6,000 TEU.
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However, risks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not disappeared, and most Asia–Europe services are still routing around the Cape of Good Hope.
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At this stage, it is unwise to assume schedules will return to normal as planned.
4. Golden Week Will Remove Capacity — Actively and Passively
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Carriers have announced blank sailing plans for weeks 37–41, covering about 6%–7% of planned capacity.
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Earlier typhoon disruptions at major Chinese ports have already removed some capacity.
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Global port congestion is at a four-year high, with more than 10% of the fleet waiting at anchor.
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Booking in late September means booking at a high price.
5. Two Policy Dates Remain on the Calendar
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October 14: The US port call fee on Chinese-built vessels officially takes effect, with a maximum single charge of USD 1.5 million. China has announced corresponding countermeasures.
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From September 18: US Customs can immediately invalidate an importer number for inaccurate Form 5106 information, with no correction period.
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Documentation is now a cost, not just a procedure.
Table Analysis: Main Route and Corridor Comparison
| Route / Corridor | Key Data | Core Issue | Exporter Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai–Los Angeles | USD 7,352/FEU, up about 2% | Frontloading ahead of tariffs | Lock in space 2–3 weeks early; avoid Golden Week pricing |
| Shanghai–New York | USD 9,726/FEU, up about 1% | US East demand plus Panama risk | Confirm whether routing uses Panama; allow for delays and surcharges |
| Shanghai–Rotterdam | USD 3,997/FEU, down 2% | End of Europe peak season; returning capacity | Do not只看 low price; confirm Cape of Good Hope or Suez routing |
| Shanghai–Genoa | USD 4,216/FEU, down 3% | Capacity-demand mismatch in Mediterranean | Compare surcharges and transit time; avoid “cheap but slow” |
| Panama Canal | Daily transits down to 32; draft 47.5 ft | Drought restricts transits | Plan US East/Gulf delays into 2027 |
| Red Sea / Suez | Average vessel size up to 6,000 TEU | Return is reversible; risk remains | Do not assume normal schedules; keep Cape routing contingency |
| Policy compliance | October 14 and September 18 | Port call fees and document invalidation risk | Audit documents before arrival; confirm carrier policies |
Table Analysis: Risk Calendar and Actions for the Coming Weeks
| Time / Event | Impact | Recommended Action |
|---|---|---|
| Weeks 37–41 blank sailings | Planned capacity cut by 6%–7% | Book US and Europe routes 2–3 weeks early |
| Panama cuts to 32 transits from September 15 | Schedule delays and higher surcharges | Add buffer for US East/Gulf; confirm surcharges |
| Panama draft cut to 47.5 ft on October 1 | Loading limits and possible rollovers | Confirm vessel type and draft restrictions with forwarder |
| Stricter Form 5106 checks from September 18 | Importer number can be invalidated immediately | Verify supplier, origin and importer records in advance |
| Port call fee effective October 14 | Cost of up to USD 1.5 million per call | Confirm vessel build background and route cost |
| Global port congestion at four-year high | Over 10% of fleet waiting at anchor | Allow extra arrival and pickup time; avoid demurrage/detention |
This also explains why international freight forwarding trends are shifting from “watching the index” to “watching the route.” A quote without a routing is not a delivery date; a low price without document verification is not safety.
Z-leading View — Three Recommendations for the Coming Weeks
1. Book early. For US and Europe routes, lock in space 2–3 weeks before cargo is ready. The Golden Week window is closing.
2. Confirm the route, not just the rate. Panama, Cape of Good Hope and Suez routings differ greatly in transit time and surcharges. A quote without a route is not a delivery commitment.
3. Audit documents now. Supplier information, origin and importer records should be verified before cargo arrives, not after.
Against these international freight forwarding trends, exporters should upgrade from “freight rate judgment” to four-dimensional management of “route + space + documents + surcharges.” These changes are not a reason to slow down; they are a reason to plan route by route.
For exporters, the core of these international freight forwarding trends is this: the companies that move cargo smoothly this quarter are often not the ones that guessed the rate direction correctly, but the ones that booked early, confirmed the route, and kept documents clean.
About Z-leading
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